Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear, and structural change models

We compare the forecasting performance of linear autoregressive models, autoregressive models with structural breaks, self-exciting threshold autoregressive models, and Markov switching autoregressive models in terms of point, interval, and density forecasts for h-month growth rates of industrial production of the G7 countries, for the period January 1960-December 2000. The results of point forecast evaluation tests support the established notion in the forecasting literature on the favorable performance of the linear AR model. By contrast, the Markov switching models render more accurate interval and density forecasts than the other models, including the linear AR model. This encouraging finding supports the idea that non-linear models may outperform linear competitors in terms of describing the uncertainty around future realizations of a time series.nonlinearity;structural change;density forecasts;forecast evaluation tests;interval forecasts

Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear, and structural change models

We compare the forecasting performance of linear autoregressive models, autoregressive models with structural breaks, self-exciting threshold autoregressive models, and Markov switching autoregressive models in terms of point, interval, and density forecasts for h-month growth rates of industrial production of the G7 countries, for the period January 1960-December 2000. The results of point forecast evaluation tests support the established notion in the forecasting literature on the favorable performance of the linear AR model. By contrast, the Markov switching models render more accurate interval and density forecasts than the other models, including the linear AR model. This encouraging finding supports the idea that non-linear models may outperform linear competitors in terms of describing the uncertainty around future realizations of a time series

Network Cournot Competition

Cournot competition is a fundamental economic model that represents firms competing in a single market of a homogeneous good. Each firm tries to maximize its utility---a function of the production cost as well as market price of the product---by deciding on the amount of production. In today's dynamic and diverse economy, many firms often compete in more than one market simultaneously, i.e., each market might be shared among a subset of these firms. In this situation, a bipartite graph models the access restriction where firms are on one side, markets are on the other side, and edges demonstrate whether a firm has access to a market or not. We call this game \emph{Network Cournot Competition} (NCC). In this paper, we propose algorithms for finding pure Nash equilibria of NCC games in different situations. First, we carefully design a potential function for NCC, when the price functions for markets are linear functions of the production in that market. However, for nonlinear price functions, this approach is not feasible. We model the problem as a nonlinear complementarity problem in this case, and design a polynomial-time algorithm that finds an equilibrium of the game for strongly convex cost functions and strongly monotone revenue functions. We also explore the class of price functions that ensures strong monotonicity of the revenue function, and show it consists of a broad class of functions. Moreover, we discuss the uniqueness of equilibria in both of these cases which means our algorithms find the unique equilibria of the games. Last but not least, when the cost of production in one market is independent from the cost of production in other markets for all firms, the problem can be separated into several independent classical \emph{Cournot Oligopoly} problems. We give the first combinatorial algorithm for this widely studied problem

Regional Interest Rate Pass-Through in Italy

Regional interest rate pass-through in Italy, Regional Studies. This paper estimates the pass-through and speed of adjustment of Italian regional interest rates to changes in the money market rate for the period 1998Q1–2009Q4. The main findings suggest that the mark-ups for the lending rates that banks charge are generally higher in the South than in the North. Moreover, the empirical results indicate that the pass-through tends to be longer in Southern regions. Furthermore, little support is found for the hypothesis that regional banks react asymmetrically when adjusting their loan rates when these are above or below equilibrium levels, but some evidence supporting an upward rigidity in the regional deposit rates is detected